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The college football world was expecting a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, offering lots of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 against the spread, consisting of three relatively non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don't appear to think so. At least in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been an especially popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to total dollars as of Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns extends to the futures market too. Bear in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the greatest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most like from sharp wagerers. The Athletic spoke to a number of bookies who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very respected gamer."
Even though reputable cash has been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as public bettors are overdoing Texas.
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"We would enjoy to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas video game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only video game in town. We talked with numerous bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has crept up somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively divided at a lot of sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in terms of overall tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I would not be shocked if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, but I presently invite any Boise State cash."
Ohio State got the Oregon second chance it desired. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most surprising to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an against No. 8 Ohio State. These groups fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.
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So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke to before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before highly regarded cash pressed it to the existing line of -2.5. A somewhat greater majority of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some highly regarded cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The overall has gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the biggest move of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over so far.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp gamblers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and immediately our Ohio wagerers thought we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been driven up to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had actually seen substantial buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
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No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line turn? Simply put, the sports betting action.
Despite the fact that Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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